• Information about the global cancer incidence in males is currently limited.
• A new study investigates 30 cancer types in males and makes projected prevalence and mortality estimates for 2050.
• The researchers found the number of cancer cases and deaths in males could increase significantly over the next few decades, by 84% and 93% respectively.

Recent studies have shown stark increases in cancer cases across both younger and older demographics.

New research published August 12 in the journal Cancer predicts that from 2022—2050, global cases of cancer in males will increase from 10.3 million to 19 million — an increase of around 84%.

Similarly, they predict that deaths from cancer in males will increase from 5.4 million to 10.5 million. In males ages 65 and older, the increase in cancer deaths will more than double.

According to the study, these increases are most pronounced in regions with low and medium Human Development Index (HDI), a metric that includes information about life expectancy, education level, and per capita income.

The authors calculate that globally, cancer cases and deaths will increase among working-age males by around 39%, and in regions with “very high” HDI scores, like the United States, they will increase by around 50%.

Cancer rates in males higher than females

Previous research has shown that the cancer incidence rate in males is 19% higher than in females, globally. Cancer death rates are also 43% higher in males.

Tingting Tan, MD, PhD, a medical oncologist and hematologist at City of Hope Newport Beach, CA, who was not involved in the study, told Healthine there’s a “1 in 2 chance a man will be diagnosed in his lifetime while a woman has a 1 in 3 chance.”

Although experts have investigated this disparity, most studies to date focused on just one form of cancer, one specific age group, or one geographical area.

The latest study, however, calculates the rates of 30 cancer types in all age groups, globally.

The scientists examined cancer incidence and death rates in 2022 and predicted how these numbers may change by the year 2050.

84% increase in cancer incidence in males

While the percentage increases in cancer rates determined by this study are concerning, it’s important to consider how this translates to the number of individual cancer cases overall.

For instance, imagine a form of cancer that affects 1 person in 100,000. If this rate increases to 2 people per 100,000, that would be an increase of 100% because the rate has doubled.

According to the study, in 2022, there were 10.3 million cases of cancer in males and 5.4 million related deaths. Overall, lung cancer had the highest incidence and mortality rates.

Looking at all cancer types, the scientists calculate there will be an 84.3% increase in cancer incidence by 2050 — rising from 10,311,610 in 2022 to 19,000,529.

They predict cancer mortality will increase by 93.2%, almost doubling from 5,430,284 to 10,490,923 deaths.

The greatest predicted increase in cancer prevalence and deaths in males of working age is due to prostate cancer. The authors estimate a 50.4% increase in cases, rising from 387,253 to 582,372. Deaths from prostate cancer are expected to increase by 52.3% by 2050 — from 40,708 to 62,001 deaths.

In older adults, the largest increase in prevalence is for non-melanoma skin cancer, with a 139.8% increase. They predict case numbers will rise from 603,939 to 1,448,322.

In this older demographic, the most significant increases in cancer deaths by 2050 will be due to prostate cancer (rising from 356,698 to 877,508) and non-melanoma skin cancer (rising from 28,370 to 69,775).

These differences varied widely between countries and regions. For instance, countries and regions with a “very high” Human Development Index (HDI) score may experience a 50.2% increase in cancer cases by 2050, compared with a 138.6% increase in regions with a low score.

Wael Harb, MD, a board-certified hematologist and medical oncologist at MemorialCare Cancer Institute at Orange Coast and Saddleback Medical Centers in Orange County, CA, told Healthline that people living in regions with a low HDI score are likely to experience greater increases in cancer rates.

Harb, who was not involved in the research, said this is “largely due to limited access to healthcare, inadequate infrastructure, and insufficient early detection and treatment services.”

Why are males more likely to get cancer?

Males are more likely to develop and die from cancer than females for a number of reasons. The authors explain that males are:

• More likely to drink alcohol and smoke tobacco.
• More likely to encounter cancer-causing chemicals at work.
• Less likely to access screening, prevention, and treatment options.

However, Tan noted these reasons do not paint the full picture:

“Studies have shown that men are more likely to be exposed to industrial hazards — including asbestos or industrial toxins — in their workplace,” she explained.

“However, the differences in cancer rates have remained consistently higher in men even when women work the same jobs and have similar lifestyles that include smoking and drinking. Researchers have believed for a while that the difference was solely due to variations in lifestyle choices, but we now know that it is much more complex than that.”

Tan explained that some of the disparity may have a genetic component. “Females have an additional copy of certain protective genes in their cells that men do not have.”

Yet she also believes that this “does not entirely account for the gender cancer disparity.”

Another potential factor is cancer screening. These have significantly increased survival rates from cervical cancer, but there are no similar programs for male-specific cancers, like testicular cancer.

What can be done to lower cancer risk?

Early detection of cancer is key to survival.

“Prostate and lung cancer were among the top cancers behind the rise in this study,” Tan said. “Screening is essential for both of these cancers. We know from the data that this screening does improve the chance of survival.”

“With prostate cancer being the second leading cause of death in American men, men have to be proactive about getting screened as recommended by their doctor,” she concluded.

Dazhi Liu, PharmD, a medical contributor for Drugwatch, explained that “improved access to and use of cancer screening, particularly for cancers like prostate and colorectal cancer, and especially for older men, could improve cancer outcomes and equity.” Liu was not involved in the study.

“Adopting a healthier lifestyle, including maintaining a balanced diet, exercising regularly, and minimizing exposure to occupational carcinogens, can further reduce cancer risk,” she said.

Harb suggested a diet “rich in fruits, vegetables, and whole grains” alongside regular physical activity. He also called for a renewed focus on “public awareness campaigns to promote healthy lifestyles.”

Nilesh Vora, MD, a board-certified hematologist, medical oncologist, and medical director of the MemorialCare Todd Cancer Institute at Long Beach Medical Center, CA, agreed about the importance of education to help prevent cancer. Vora was not involved in the study.

“Education is absolutely imperative. We must educate our youth and community members about the importance of a healthy lifestyle,” he explained.

“There’s also an urgent need to expand research into cancer treatments that are both affordable and effective,” Liu said. “Particularly in areas with low HDI scores. Tackling these issues will require coordinated efforts from governments, healthcare providers, and international organizations.”

Vora shared his thoughts for areas of further research: “Overall, this study should also prompt more research into discovering more causes for this predicted increase in order to discover more modifiable causes and also improve outcomes for patients with cancer,” he said.

Takeaway

In 2020, males were more likely to develop cancer than females, and by 2050, this gap between the sexes is likely to increase significantly, according to a new study.

Much of the difference between the sexes is due to a lack of screening, increased exposure to workplace carcinogens, and differences in lifestyle factors, such as tobacco and alcohol consumption.

Getting regular exercise, eating a balanced diet, and avoiding tobacco and alcohol can help reduce cancer risk, as can regular screening.