Oil Holds Gain on Positive US Economic Data, Libya Disruptions

(Bloomberg) — Oil steadied after jumping on Thursday on positive US economic data and worsening supply disruptions in Libya.

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Brent for October traded around $80 a barrel after climbing 1.6% in the previous session, while West Texas Intermediate was below $76. A revision in US data showed the world’s largest economy growing at a slightly stronger pace in the second quarter than initially reported, boosting sentiment. Meanwhile, output from Libya threatens to drop further after halving this week on growing turmoil in the OPEC producer.

The global crude benchmark is still set for its first back-to-back monthly loss this year, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley the latest to slash their price forecasts, citing the disappointing demand outlook in China, the world’s biggest importer. The threat of OPEC+ restoring some supply in the fourth quarter is also hanging over the market.

OPEC+’s indications that it would restore some supply as planned had surprised the market, but “the group must now face off against the new environment of deepening macro concerns and loosening fundamentals ahead,” ANZ Group Holdings analysts including Daniel Hynes said in a note. “OPEC will have no choice but to delay the phase out of voluntary production cuts if it wants higher prices.”

Still, widely watched timespreads are signaling strength, with the gap between Brent’s two nearest contracts rallying ahead of contract expiry. The figure was last more than $1 a barrel in a bullish, backwardated structure, which is about double the 56 cents a barrel it was at a month ago.

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