Oil, Haven Assets Rise After Iran Strikes Israel: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Oil and haven assets advanced after Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel, with the flight to safety sending US stocks lower on Tuesday.

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Crude oil rose 1.5% in early Asian trading after gaining more than 2% on Tuesday, while bonds, gold and the US dollar also climbed following Tehran’s sharp but brief strike in reprisal for Israel’s attacks on Lebanon in recent days. The Israel Defense Forces said many of the missiles had been intercepted as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate.

Stocks fell in Tokyo and Sydney after the S&P 500 slid 0.9%, with contracts pointing to further declines for the US benchmark in early trading. Wall Street’s fear gauge — the VIX — spiked higher on Tuesday, touching a key level that usually indicates more market swings are in store. Australian and New Zealand government bonds rose.

“Markets are in wait-and-see mode,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. “The next 24 hours will be critical to see how far this situation escalates and whether the rush to safe havens was justified.”

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A gauge of US-listed Chinese shares surged for a fourth day with markets in mainland China shut for Golden Week. Trading is set to resume in Hong Kong on Wednesday after a holiday on Tuesday. Taiwan will close its stock market as Super Typhoon Krathon approaches the island.

The tech sector was the worst performer in the US on Tuesday, with Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. sinking around 3%. The Nasdaq 100 trimmed a more than 2% loss to a 1.4% drop in afternoon trading.

The Middle East conflict eclipsed signals from US economic data on Tuesday. The US ISM price index fell by the most since May 2023, while US job openings rose in August to a three-month high, at odds with other readouts indicating slowing demand for workers. Treasury yields remained lower with the 10-year hovering around 3.73%.

The new data “should weigh down the 10-year yield, dollar, and employment service stocks,” even if Friday’s payrolls release is more influential, according to Evercore ISI’s Stan Shipley. “However, geopolitical stories out of the Mideast are more important for Treasury markets.”

Investors will also get a chance to hear from vice presidential nominees JD Vance and Tim Walz in their sole debate of this election season in the US. The would-be VPs are trying to win crucial swing voters in the lead-up to November.

Shares of Nike Inc. weakened in postmarket trading after the athleticwear maker reported quarterly revenue that missed estimates. Samsung Electronics Co. shares slipped after Bloomberg reported the company is laying off workers as part of a plan to reduce global headcount by thousands of jobs.

In money markets, swaps traders are wagering on a one-in-three chance the Fed will deliver another half-point cut in November, but that may not pan out as expected, Larry Fink warned.

“The amount of easing that’s in the forward curve is crazy,” Fink, the chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “There’s room for easing more, but not as much as the forward curve would indicate.”

Elsewhere, South Korea’s inflation slowed more than expected, supporting the case for a pivot to monetary easing by the central bank when it sets policy next week. Meanwhile, euro-area inflation slowed below the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the first time since 2021, prompting money markets to add to bets on another quarter-point decrease by the ECB this month.

Key events this week:

  • S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday

  • Fed speakers include Richmond’s Thomas Barkin, Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, St. Louis’s Alberto Musalem and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Wednesday

  • US nonfarm payrolls, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% as of 9:10 a.m. Tokyo time

  • Hang Seng futures were unchanged

  • Japan’s Topix fell 0.7%

  • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.4%

  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 1.1%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed

  • The euro was little changed at $1.1066

  • The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 143.81 per dollar

  • The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.0319 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $60,925.26

  • Ether rose 0.2% to $2,456.23

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was unchanged at 3.73%

  • Japan’s 10-year yield declined 2.5 basis points to 0.825%

  • Australia’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 3.96%

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $70.67 a barrel

  • Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,659.24 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Nicholas Reynolds and Winnie Hsu.

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©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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