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Upgrade to Premium ‘Rates Will Be a Lot Lower’ in 12-18 Months, Fed’s Goolsbee Says Catarina Saraiva Fri, Nov 15, 2024, 8:16 AM 2 min read
(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Austan Goolsbee said as long as inflation continues down toward the central bank’s 2% goal, interest rates will be “a lot” lower over the next 12-18 months.
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But Goolsbee agreed with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, noting policymakers are not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs.
“As long we keep making progress toward the 2% inflation goal, over the next 12 to 18 months rates will be a lot lower than where they are now,” Goolsbee said on CNBC Friday.
The Chicago Fed chief said it makes sense to slow rate cuts at some point amid uncertainty over where the neutral rate is. That’s the level where policy neither stimulates nor restrains the economy.
“If there’s disagreement of what’s the neutral rate, it does make sense at some point to start slowing how rapidly we’re getting there,” he said.
Goolsbee added that interest rates remain restrictive, so there’s still room to cut borrowing costs to a more neutral level.
Policymakers lowered rates by a quarter percentage point last week, following a larger reduction in September. Several Fed officials, including Powell, have advocated for a cautious and slow approach to further reductions given the strength of the economy.
Data out earlier Friday showed US retail sales advanced in October, boosted by autos. Furthermore, significant upward revisions to the prior month’s data suggest consumers entered the final months of the year with strong momentum.
Powell said Thursday the economy is not sending “any signals” that the central bank needs to be in a hurry to lower interest rates, allowing officials to pursue further adjustments “carefully.”
Progress toward the central bank’s 2% inflation target has also slowed. Data out earlier this week showed a key gauge of consumer prices that excludes food and energy rose at a firm 0.3% for a third-straight month.
(Adds additional comment from Goolsbee in sixth paragraph.)
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