admin
News
- Today's news
- US
- Politics
- World
- Tech
- Reviews and deals
- Audio
- Computing
- Gaming
- Health
- Home
- Phones
- Science
- TVs
- Climate change
- Health
- Science
- 2024 election
- Originals
- The 360
- Newsletters
Life
- Health
- COVID-19
- Fall allergies
- Health news
- Mental health
- Relax
- Sexual health
- Studies
- The Unwind
- Parenting
- Family health
- So mini ways
- Style and beauty
- It Figures
- Unapologetically
- Horoscopes
- Shopping
- Buying guides
- Food
- Travel
- Autos
- Gift ideas
- Buying guides
Entertainment
- Celebrity
- TV
- Movies
- Music
- How to Watch
- Interviews
- Videos
Finance
- My Portfolio
- News
- Latest News
- Stock Market
- Originals
- The Morning Brief
- Premium News
- Economics
- Housing
- Earnings
- Tech
- Crypto
- Biden Economy
- Markets
- Stocks: Most Actives
- Stocks: Gainers
- Stocks: Losers
- Trending Tickers
- Futures
- World Indices
- US Treasury Bonds Rates
- Currencies
- Crypto
- Top ETFs
- Top Mutual Funds
- Options: Highest Open Interest
- Options: Highest Implied Volatility
- Sectors
- Basic Materials
- Communication Services
- Consumer Cyclical
- Consumer Defensive
- Energy
- Financial Services
- Healthcare
- Industrials
- Real Estate
- Technology
- Utilities
- Research
- Screeners
- Screeners Beta
- Watchlists
- Calendar
- Stock Comparison
- Advanced Chart
- Currency Converter
- Investment Ideas
- Research Reports
- Personal Finance
- Credit Cards
- Balance Transfer Cards
- Cash-back Cards
- Rewards Cards
- Travel Cards
- Credit Card Offers
- Banking
- CD Rates
- Best HYSA
- Best Free Checking
- Student Loans
- Personal Loans
- Insurance
- Car insurance
- Mortgages
- Mortgage Refinancing
- Mortgage Calculator
- Taxes
- Videos
- Latest News
- Editor's Picks
- Investing Insights
- Trending Stocks
- All Shows
- Morning Brief
- Opening Bid
- Wealth
- Invest
- ETF Report
- Streaming Now
Sports
- Fantasy
- News
- Fantasy football
- Best Ball
- Pro Pick 'Em
- College Pick 'Em
- Fantasy baseball
- Fantasy hockey
- Fantasy basketball
- Download the app
- Daily fantasy
- NFL
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Stats
- Teams
- Players
- Drafts
- Injuries
- Odds
- Super Bowl
- GameChannel
- Videos
- MLB
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Stats
- Teams
- Players
- Odds
- Videos
- World Baseball Classic
- NBA
- News
- Draft
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Stats
- Teams
- Players
- Injuries
- Videos
- Odds
- Playoffs
- NHL
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Stats
- Teams
- Players
- Odds
- Playoffs
- Soccer
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Premier League
- MLS
- NWSL
- Liga MX
- CONCACAF League
- Champions League
- La Liga
- Serie A
- Bundesliga
- Ligue 1
- World Cup
- College football
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Rankings
- Stats
- Teams
-
- MMA
- WNBA
- Sportsbook
- NCAAF
- Tennis
- Golf
- NASCAR
- NCAAB
- NCAAW
- Boxing
- USFL
- Cycling
- Motorsports
- Olympics
- Horse racing
- GameChannel
- Rivals
- Newsletters
- Podcasts
- Videos
- RSS
- Jobs
- Help
- World Cup
- More news
New on Yahoo
- Creators
- Games
- Tech
- Terms
- Privacy
- Your Privacy Choices
- Feedback
© 2024 All rights reserved. About our ads Advertising Careers Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance Search query Select edition
- USEnglish
- US y LATAMEspañol
- AustraliaEnglish
- CanadaEnglish
- CanadaFrançais
- DeutschlandDeutsch
- FranceFrançais
- 香港繁中
- MalaysiaEnglish
- New ZealandEnglish
- SingaporeEnglish
- 台灣繁中
- UKEnglish
Sign in
- My Portfolio
- News
- Latest News
- Stock Market
- Originals
- The Morning Brief
- Premium News
- Economics
- Housing
- Earnings
- Tech
- Crypto
- Biden Economy
- Markets
- Stocks: Most Actives
- Stocks: Gainers
- Stocks: Losers
- Trending Tickers
- Futures
- World Indices
- US Treasury Bonds Rates
- Currencies
- Crypto
- Top ETFs
- Top Mutual Funds
- Options: Highest Open Interest
- Options: Highest Implied Volatility
- Sectors
- Basic Materials
- Communication Services
- Consumer Cyclical
- Consumer Defensive
- Energy
- Financial Services
- Healthcare
- Industrials
- Real Estate
- Technology
- Utilities
- Research
- Screeners
- Screeners Beta
- Watchlists
- Calendar
- Stock Comparison
- Advanced Chart
- Currency Converter
- Investment Ideas
- Research Reports
- Personal Finance
- Credit Cards
- Balance Transfer Cards
- Cash-back Cards
- Rewards Cards
- Travel Cards
- Credit Card Offers
- Banking
- CD Rates
- Best HYSA
- Best Free Checking
- Student Loans
- Personal Loans
- Insurance
- Car insurance
- Mortgages
- Mortgage Refinancing
- Mortgage Calculator
- Taxes
- Videos
- Latest News
- Editor's Picks
- Investing Insights
- Trending Stocks
- All Shows
- Morning Brief
- Opening Bid
- Wealth
- Invest
- ETF Report
- Streaming Now
Upgrade to Premium Citi’s strategists say Fed should pause, opposing its economists
1 / 2
Citi’s Strategists Say Fed Should Pause, Opposing Its Economists
Carter Johnson Mon, Nov 25, 2024, 1:00 PM 3 min read
(Bloomberg) — Interest-rate strategists at Citigroup Inc. say the Federal Reserve should pause its interest-rate cuts, further isolating the bank’s economists, who’ve stuck with a call for a half-point move in December long after others on Wall Street abandoned it.
Most Read from Bloomberg
-
New York City’s ‘Living Breakwaters’ Brace for Stormier Seas
-
In Kansas City, a First-Ever Stadium Designed for Women’s Sports Takes the Field
-
NYC's Underground Steam System May Be Key to a Greener Future
-
NYC Gets Historic Push for 80,000 Homes With $5 Billion Pledge
“We believe that the Fed should put easing on hold, barring weak payrolls data in December,” strategists Jabaz Mathai and Alejandra Vazquez said in a Nov. 22 report, referring to the US employment report for November slated to be released on Dec. 6. And even if job creation is weak, “it can be argued that other labor market data such as jobless claims are indicating a resilient labor market.”
The strategists recommended that investors position for a pause by the Fed next month by paying the rate on the overnight index swap contract corresponding to the Fed’s December rate decision. They first endorsed the trade on Nov. 5 when the rate was 4.404%, and it has since climbed to about 4.46%, at which level it prices in just under 50% odds of a quarter-point rate cut.
• USD (C)
The caveat, they wrote: “This is a dovish Fed and the threshold to skip is high.”
Meanwhile, Citi economists are holding out for a half-point Fed rate cut in December — while acknowledging that the odds have faded.
While soft November jobs data would allow the Fed to cut rates by a half-point, if the US unemployment rates holds steady at 4.1% rather than rising, a quarter-point cut is likelier, the economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark said in reports this month.
The Fed cut interest rates by a half point on Sept. 18 at a point when Wall Street was divided on whether policymakers would opt for a quarter-point move instead for their first reduction in years. By the time they followed it up with a quarter-point move on Nov. 7 amid signs of economic resilience, economists at Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. had scrapped calls for another half-point cut this year.
Bond investors more broadly have pared wagers on how much Fed easing can be expected over the next year. In addition to strong performance by the US economy and stock market, the Nov. 5 presidential election of Donald Trump stoked wagers that inflation could re-accelerate. OIS contracts linked to next year’s Fed meetings are priced for about 73 basis points of cuts over the next 12 months to a level of about 3.86%. As recently as early October the expected rate was under 3%.
Citi’s economists expect the November jobs report to show job creation short of 150,000, compared with a median forecast of 220,000 in Bloomberg’s survey. For the Fed to pause in December would require job growth of at least 300,000 and an increase in November core consumer prices of at least 0.35%, they said.
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
-
What Happens When US Hospitals Go Big on Nurse Practitioners
-
Why the Flying Experience Feels So Much Worse
-
The Charm Bracelet Shop That Keeps Going Viral
-
Clear’s Dominance in Airports Could Be Coming to an End
-
An Airline’s Florida Resort Dreams Look More Like a Nightmare
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
Terms and Privacy Policy Your Privacy Choices
