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Upgrade to Premium Bank of America’s guide on how to handle awkward economy and politics chat over Thanksgiving dinner Thanksgiving might present some awkward questions about economic. Bank of America has got you covered. · Fortune · urbazon – Getty Images Eleanor Pringle Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 4:30 AM 7 min read
In This Article:
BAC
We've all been there. A relative who's not quite up-to-speed with the latest economic news starts asking questions (or making suggestions) during Thanksgiving dinner, and things quickly get awkward.
But Bank of America's got you covered.
The nation's second-largest bank has compiled a how-to guide for chatting inflation, Trump policies and the housing market.
Analysts at Aditya Bhave, Stephen Juneau, Shruti Mishra and Jeseo Park compiled a list of FAQs and answers in a note seen by Fortune, adding: "For each question, we suggest both a short response—in case it's getting late—and a more detailed one if you're still waiting on dessert."
Topic No. 1: Grocery prices
Those paying the food bill for Thanksgiving dinner this year may not trust economists who say inflation is coming down.
For a quick response to the question, Bank of America advises simply outlining what inflation means: "the increase in prices over the last year." Therefore, "prices have increased a lot since 2019, but not much over the last year."
If that doesn't suffice, the analysts suggest both a definition of inflation and a quick trip down memory lane—furnished with a couple of data points.
Their advised response is: "Inflation took off in 2021 because of global supply chain disruptions and strong demand, as consumers were flush with cash from pandemic-related fiscal stimulus. Then inflation took another leg higher in 2022 because of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on food and energy prices.
"Inflation has slowed since mid-2022 … and they are generally still increasing, but at a much slower pace. For example, food prices are up just 1.2% in the last 12 months. But they have increased by 25% over the last five years.
"Although most of the surge happened in 2021 and 2022, households are still feeling the impact. That is why the idea of 'lower inflation' doesn't necessarily resonate with many folks."
Topic No. 2: Prices going back down
A reasonable follow-up question for consumers might be if grocery prices, for example, will ever return to their pre-pandemic figures.
The analysts suggest a simple "Probably never, for most items. And that's probably for the better," as a short response.
A quick lesson in deflation might be required for a longer answer, with the team suggesting a response of: "In order to get prices back to 2019 levels, we would need an extended period of deep deflation.
"Lower prices might seem appealing at first blush, but deflation is usually a sign of economic malaise that is very hard to break out of. Japan had several bouts of deflation from 1995 through the start of the pandemic. During those 25 years, the Japanese economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.8%, while the US grew at 2.5%. A vibrant economy should have positive (but low) inflation, reflecting growth in consumer demand.
"That said, prices of certain items that overshot substantially during the pandemic could fall moderately in the near term … although prices of food as a whole are still increasing, dairy prices are down slightly from their peak. On that note, could you please pass me the whipped cream?"
Topic No.3: Trump policies
While it's generally advised not to discuss politics at the dinner table, the recent U.S. election and its impact on the economy might mean the usually taboo topic cannot be overlooked.
On what to expect from a second Trump administration, BofA advised a brief overview: "You should expect business-friendly tax policy, higher tariffs, broad deregulation, and immigration restrictions. But your individual taxes might not go down."
Delving a little deeper (if the subject hasn't been dropped), the quartet penned an answer of: "There is still a lot of uncertainty around the incoming administration's policy outlook. The Republican party will probably extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act(TCJA), most of which was due to sunset at the end of next year.
"There has also been some talk of eliminating taxes on tips and Social Security income, but these proposals are unlikely to make it into the final bill, as are any other meaningful cuts to personal income taxes. They are just too expensive from a budget standpoint.
On trade: "You should expect tariffs on U.S. goods imports from China to increase significantly in 2025-26. Smaller increases for other countries are also likely, though Mexico and Canada will probably end up avoiding tariffs. The extent to which this is inflationary will partly depend on how exchange rates respond to the tariffs."
For those wondering about their portfolio, BofA added: "The Trump team has already made it clear that there will be sweeping deregulation, which is probably the main reason stocks responded so positively to the election results. Beneficiaries include the financial and energy sectors.
"And on immigration, significant tightening in the flow of migrants appears to be more likely than large changes to the migrant population that is already in the U.S."
Topic No. 4: Deficit
Another issue rising to the public's agenda is the national debt, which has now reached more than $36 trillion.
For those questioning why and how the government can afford to add $2 trillion a year to its deficit, BofA had a straightforward response: "Rising interest costs and entitlement spending are the major drivers of the fiscal deficit."
For a more rounded answer, the analysts suggest providing context around both historical debts and service payments as a proportion to GDP: "Deficits aren't a new phenomenon. Since 1946, the U.S. Federal Government has recorded a deficit in all but 12 years.
"What is new, however, is the size of the deficit given the health of the economy. At 6.4% in FY 2024, the deficit-to-GDP ratio is 1.8pp above FY 2019 levels and more than double the historical average. The major reason for this is higher interest rates driving up interest costs.
"Another reason for our deficit problem is that mandatory outlays such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid rise with inflation … Absent changes to entitlements, spending will continue to grow due to an aging population and rising healthcare costs. That said, interest is likely to continue to be the bigger boogeyman when it comes to the deficit."
Topic No. 5: Housing
Of course, family dinners also present opportunities for catching up on life's milestones: careers, relationships, friendships, and finances.
A new administration and interest rate environment might have some wondering whether a seemingly unattainable aim might be coming closer to being achieved: buying a house.
On questions about affordability and whether mortgage rates will come down, BofA suggested a response of: "Mortgage rates should decrease a little next year, but probably not too far below 6%. Housing affordability is likely to remain a problem."
If asked to explain the gloomy outlook, they said one could outline the past year to hint about the future of the market.
A more comprehensive answer about the future of the property sector might be: "2024 was a challenging year for many homebuyers. Mortgage rates decreased a little this year, but not nearly as much as anticipated. Next year, they could drop to around 6%. That isn't a big decline, but it could still support sales given resilient demand for housing.
"However, with most homeowners locked into low fixed-rate mortgages, it remains to be seen how elastic the housing market will be to slightly lower rates.
"The lock-in effect is also constraining the supply of existing homes. This, along with solid demand, has kept home prices very elevated. As a result, housing affordability is a challenge for most prospective buyers."
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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