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Upgrade to Premium Charting the Global Economy: US Job Growth Tanks Ahead of Election, Fed Meeting
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Charting the Global Economy: US Job Growth Tanks Ahead of Election, Fed Meeting
Molly Smith and Vince Golle Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 4:00 AM 4 min read
(Bloomberg) — US hiring in October was the weakest since 2020, reflecting the impact of severe hurricanes and a strike at Boeing Co.
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Nonfarm payrolls increased 12,000 last month, and hiring over the previous two months was weaker than previously thought, suggesting the underlying labor market continues to cool. The data keep the Federal Reserve on track to lower interest rates by a quarter-point next week, and it’s the last major data point on the economy before the US presidential election.
Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics:
US
US hiring advanced at the slowest pace since 2020 while the unemployment rate remained low in October, a month distorted by severe hurricanes and a major strike at Boeing Co. Nonfarm payrolls increased 12,000 last month, and hiring over the previous two months was weaker than previously thought, suggesting the underlying labor market continues to cool.
The next US president will inherit an economy that’s humming, powered by American consumers who continue to spend despite years of high prices and interest rates. According to the so-called misery index, which adds up the inflation rate and unemployment rate, Americans shouldn’t be miserable at all. The widely used welfare gauge is lower than in any recent election year, except for 2016.
Nestled among the corn fields of Pataskala, Ohio, Illuminate USA’s sprawling new solar factory is buzzing. It’s part of the clean energy manufacturing boom promised by the Biden administration, the result of sweeping incentives designed to restore national prowess in a market dominated by China. In reality, what looks like a domestic triumph is also a win for America’s primary industrial and geopolitical rival.
Europe
The euro area’s economy expanded in the third quarter by more than expected — with even Germany avoiding the recession it was widely tipped to endure. Growth in France accelerated and stayed strong in Spain.
Rachel Reeves unveiled £40 billion ($51.8 billion) of tax rises — the most in decades — and ramped up borrowing, both seismic moves designed to meet Labour’s pledge to “rebuild” the UK that still yielded only modest projected boosts to growth and public spending.
A policy U-turn in Sweden that would entail a massive buildout of reactors, the first to come online in more than 40 years, now appears more unlikely as uncertainty grows over how much electricity the Nordic region’s biggest economy will actually need in the coming decades.
Asia
The Liberal Democratic Party has ruled Japan for all but about four years since the movement’s founding in 1955, but lost its majority in an election on Oct. 27, creating political uncertainty at a time of heightened global anxieties. LDP policy priorities such as tax hikes to pay for increased spending for the military may have to be adjusted to win over the small parties, most of whom want tax cuts and more money for households.
The nuclear power plant closest to the epicenter of the massive earthquake that rocked Japan in 2011 resumed operation, a major milestone in the country’s bid to revive its use of atomic energy.
While East Asia dominates the list of nations with the lowest fertility rates, every industrialized country on the planet is contending with the same looming reality: far more deaths than births. That will have profound consequences for the health of economies and government finances.
Emerging Markets
Mexico’s economic growth accelerated more than expected in the third quarter on solid domestic demand and a recovery of the agriculture sector, marking a pace that’s unlikely to be sustained going forward.
The Reserve Bank of India’s upbeat growth estimates for the world’s fastest-growing major economy is causing both confusion and concern among economists. The RBI’s bullishness is underpinned by its view that rural spending is improving and private investment is picking up. Economists, though, point to sluggish urban consumption and weakening exports as a worry.
The Israeli cabinet approved a 2025 budget to pave the way for rising defense spending and higher taxes, reflecting a profound shift in priorities since the start of the war with Hamas just over a year ago. Some opposition leaders have criticized the budget, saying it’s designed to appease Netanyahu’s far-right coalition members by keeping spending for religious and nationalist causes that do little to boost growth.
World
The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged while sticking to its view that it’s on track to achieve its inflation target, an outlook that points to the possibility of another rate hike in the coming months. Colombia’s central bank ignored pressure to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts as policymakers weigh fiscal risks that sent the peso to its weakest level in more than a year. Ukraine held interest rates steady and Argentina cut.
–With assistance from Galit Altstein, Ruchi Bhatia, Enda Curran, Luz Ding, Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Katia Dmitrieva, Alastair Gale, Mia Glass, Jon Herskovitz, Ben Holland, William Horobin, Joe Mayes, Yoshiaki Nohara, Shoko Oda, Lars Paulsson, James Regan, Niclas Rolander, Zoe Schneeweiss, Preeti Soni, Alex Vasquez, Alexander Weber and Alex Wickham.
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