What Happened: Policy and Politics

Baseline: The future of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed in 2022 to boost US clean energy with new tax incentives, hangs in the balance. President-elect Trump and some Republicans in Congress have threatened to repeal all or part of it because they don’t agree with the policy, and they need the revenue savings to offset their 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) extensions. The processing of a tax bill next year provides a rare opening for taxpayers who are dissatisfied with the IRA or with the Biden administration tax regulations which implement the IRA.

Pulse Check: Much depends on whether Republicans gain control of both chambers of Congress, enabling them to tap into the vaunted congressional budget reconciliation process and easing their path to legislative change.

What to Monitor: Expect IRA supporters to spend time educating administration officials and congressional offices about the valuable economic and other benefits provided by these tax provisions, particularly in GOP-represented congressional districts and states. Meanwhile, industries from biofuels to hydropower are lobbying for new tax credits in the 2025 tax bill, aiming to secure a place in the complex tax landscape that lies ahead.

Voters delivered a sweeping victory to Donald Trump on Tuesday, setting him up to be the 47th President, and the first since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to be elected to a second non-consecutive term. After a surprise electoral college victory in 2016 and a narrow defeat in 2020, Trump won an outright majority of the national popular vote, the first Republican to do so since George W. Bush in 2004. While his victory helped propel a pickup of at least four Senate seats, wresting back control of the chamber from Democrats, the fate of the House remains uncertain pending the counting of outstanding California mail ballots that could drag out for a week or more.

The victory was driven by disproportionate gains among key demographics and subgroups that will become clear as the dust settles, but the overall pattern was unmistakable: Trump made significant gains coast-to-coast, in urban, suburban, and rural areas, and among virtually every cohort of the electorate. His improvement in the key battlegrounds was actually dwarfed by his gains in the nation’s bluest states, with double-digit swings in places like New York, Maryland and California. In addition to avenging his 2020 loss, the President-elect can now credibly claim a popular mandate for his policies, and quite possibly the congressional majorities to pursue them legislatively.

The restoration of President-elect Trump represents a return to 2016-17, with many of the same conditions seen seven years ago: the potential for a unified Republican government, and a clear commitment from the new administration to roll back the regulatory agenda of the previous administration and institute “America-first” policies when it comes to energy, immigration and trade. The key difference is that while the outcome of the 2016 election caught even the Trump apparatus flat-footed, preparations for President-elect Trump’s second term have been underway for the past three years. Expect a second Trump administration to be savvier and more focused in carrying out its goals, installing key personnel, and implementing policy.

The expectation is that strong policy decisions are ready for implementation on Inauguration Day through Executive Orders that will clearly lay out the regulatory and policy framework for rescinding and replacing the Biden administration agenda. Examination of the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act mechanisms will certainly occur. President-elect Trump has made clear his intentions to leverage American foreign policy through trade and tariffs rather than military means. Particularly in the energy space, President-elect Trump has pledged a return to American energy dominance backed by a foundation and focus on leveraging domestic traditional energy resources. As observed in his first term, separating campaign rhetoric from implanted policy will continue to be a critical exercise. It is a guarantee that President-elect Trump intends to staff up quickly with political loyalists who have experience in navigating the proclivities of both a Trump administration and Washington bureaucracy, one that he has yet again pledged to dismantle.

President-elect Trump re-assumes the White House with a certain Republican majority in the US Senate and a likely slim majority in the US House of Representatives, providing the ability to implement legislative initiatives while ensuring a full swath of Cabinet-level and senior-level appointees. Legislative action will be necessary for targeting provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, and while the notion of full repeal exists in rhetoric, it is more likely that Republicans use a more precise approach, preserving legacy provisions that tend to benefit traditional energy sources and targeting those that are more renewable energy focused. However, the slim majorities in each chamber complicate the full breadth of legislation that Republicans can expect to implement. The focus in the early days of Congress will be on the aforementioned Senate confirmation process and resolutions of disapproval under the Congressional Review Act to repeal Biden administration regulations finalized in the last 60 days of the previous Congress, which are both likely to be comfortable party-aligned exercises. The tools of congressional oversight will be trained on assisting the Trump administration in implementing regulatory changes and building a record toward federal agency reforms – such as permitting, federal workforce, and agency re-organization.