admin
News
- Today's news
- US
- Politics
- World
- Tech
- Reviews and deals
- Audio
- Computing
- Gaming
- Health
- Home
- Phones
- Science
- TVs
- Climate change
- Health
- Science
- 2024 election
- Originals
- The 360
- Newsletters
Life
- Health
- COVID-19
- Fall allergies
- Health news
- Mental health
- Relax
- Sexual health
- Studies
- The Unwind
- Parenting
- Family health
- So mini ways
- Style and beauty
- It Figures
- Unapologetically
- Horoscopes
- Shopping
- Buying guides
- Food
- Travel
- Autos
- Gift ideas
- Buying guides
Entertainment
- Celebrity
- TV
- Movies
- Music
- How to Watch
- Interviews
- Videos
Finance
- My Portfolio
- News
- Latest News
- Stock Market
- Originals
- The Morning Brief
- Premium News
- Economics
- Housing
- Earnings
- Tech
- Crypto
- Biden Economy
- Markets
- Stocks: Most Actives
- Stocks: Gainers
- Stocks: Losers
- Trending Tickers
- Futures
- World Indices
- US Treasury Bonds Rates
- Currencies
- Crypto
- Top ETFs
- Top Mutual Funds
- Options: Highest Open Interest
- Options: Highest Implied Volatility
- Sectors
- Basic Materials
- Communication Services
- Consumer Cyclical
- Consumer Defensive
- Energy
- Financial Services
- Healthcare
- Industrials
- Real Estate
- Technology
- Utilities
- Research
- Screeners
- Screeners Beta
- Watchlists
- Calendar
- Stock Comparison
- Advanced Chart
- Currency Converter
- Investment Ideas
- Research Reports
- Personal Finance
- Credit Cards
- Balance Transfer Cards
- Cash-back Cards
- Rewards Cards
- Travel Cards
- Credit Card Offers
- Banking
- CD Rates
- Best HYSA
- Best Free Checking
- Student Loans
- Personal Loans
- Insurance
- Car insurance
- Mortgages
- Mortgage Refinancing
- Mortgage Calculator
- Taxes
- Videos
- Invest
- Latest News
- Editor's Picks
- Investing Insights
- Trending Stocks
- All Shows
- Morning Brief
- Opening Bid
- Wealth
- ETF Report
Sports
- Fantasy
- News
- Fantasy football
- Best Ball
- Pro Pick 'Em
- College Pick 'Em
- Fantasy baseball
- Fantasy hockey
- Fantasy basketball
- Download the app
- Daily fantasy
- NFL
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Stats
- Teams
- Players
- Drafts
- Injuries
- Odds
- Super Bowl
- GameChannel
- Videos
- MLB
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Stats
- Teams
- Players
- Odds
- Videos
- World Baseball Classic
- NBA
- News
- Draft
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Stats
- Teams
- Players
- Injuries
- Videos
- Odds
- Playoffs
- NHL
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Stats
- Teams
- Players
- Odds
- Playoffs
- Soccer
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Premier League
- MLS
- NWSL
- Liga MX
- CONCACAF League
- Champions League
- La Liga
- Serie A
- Bundesliga
- Ligue 1
- World Cup
- College football
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Rankings
- Stats
- Teams
-
- MMA
- WNBA
- Sportsbook
- NCAAF
- Tennis
- Golf
- NASCAR
- NCAAB
- NCAAW
- Boxing
- USFL
- Cycling
- Motorsports
- Olympics
- Horse racing
- GameChannel
- Rivals
- Newsletters
- Podcasts
- Videos
- RSS
- Jobs
- Help
- World Cup
- More news
New on Yahoo
- Creators
- Games
- Tech
- Terms
- Privacy
- Your Privacy Choices
- Feedback
© 2024 All rights reserved. About our ads Advertising Careers Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance Search query Select edition
- USEnglish
- US y LATAMEspañol
- AustraliaEnglish
- CanadaEnglish
- CanadaFrançais
- DeutschlandDeutsch
- FranceFrançais
- 香港繁中
- MalaysiaEnglish
- New ZealandEnglish
- SingaporeEnglish
- 台灣繁中
- UKEnglish
Sign in
- My Portfolio
- News
- Latest News
- Stock Market
- Originals
- The Morning Brief
- Premium News
- Economics
- Housing
- Earnings
- Tech
- Crypto
- Biden Economy
- Markets
- Stocks: Most Actives
- Stocks: Gainers
- Stocks: Losers
- Trending Tickers
- Futures
- World Indices
- US Treasury Bonds Rates
- Currencies
- Crypto
- Top ETFs
- Top Mutual Funds
- Options: Highest Open Interest
- Options: Highest Implied Volatility
- Sectors
- Basic Materials
- Communication Services
- Consumer Cyclical
- Consumer Defensive
- Energy
- Financial Services
- Healthcare
- Industrials
- Real Estate
- Technology
- Utilities
- Research
- Screeners
- Screeners Beta
- Watchlists
- Calendar
- Stock Comparison
- Advanced Chart
- Currency Converter
- Investment Ideas
- Research Reports
- Personal Finance
- Credit Cards
- Balance Transfer Cards
- Cash-back Cards
- Rewards Cards
- Travel Cards
- Credit Card Offers
- Banking
- CD Rates
- Best HYSA
- Best Free Checking
- Student Loans
- Personal Loans
- Insurance
- Car insurance
- Mortgages
- Mortgage Refinancing
- Mortgage Calculator
- Taxes
- Videos
- Invest
- Latest News
- Editor's Picks
- Investing Insights
- Trending Stocks
- All Shows
- Morning Brief
- Opening Bid
- Wealth
- ETF Report
Upgrade to Premium Trump win has economists concerned US economy will fail to make soft landing Alexandra Canal · Senior Reporter Sun, Nov 17, 2024, 8:30 AM 3 min read
In This Article:
^DJI ^GSPC ^IXIC
Investors this year have grown increasingly confident the US economy will achieve a "soft landing."
But the election of Donald Trump as the nation's next president has complicated the outlook.
And some economists now think it's likely the US could face another inflation resurgence if Trump follows through with his key campaign promises.
"We are in the soft landing," Nobel prize-winning economist and Columbia University professor Joseph Stiglitz said at Yahoo Finance's annual Invest conference on Tuesday. "But that ends Jan. 20."
Joseph Stiglitz at Yahoo Finance Invest conference. (Source: Yahoo Finance)
Trump and his proposed policies have been viewed as potentially more inflationary due to the president-elect's campaign promises of high tariffs on imported goods, tax cuts for corporations, and curbs on immigration. Those policies could also pressure an already bloated federal deficit, further complicating the Federal Reserve's path forward for interest rates.
"The biggest risk is a large across-the-board tariff, which would likely hit growth hard," Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.
Jennifer McKeown, chief global economist at Capital Economics, also acknowledged in a note this week there are "upside risks" to inflation "stemming partly from Trump’s proposed tariff and immigration policies."
And investors have taken notice.
On Wednesday, the latest Global Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America highlighted increased expectations of a "no landing" scenario, in which the economy continues to grow but inflation pressures persist, leading to a higher-for-longer interest rate policy from the central bank.
'The inflationary spiral'
Tariffs have been one of the most talked-about promises of Trump's campaign. The president-elect has pledged to impose blanket tariffs of at least 10% on all trading partners, including a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.
"It will be inflationary," Stiglitz said. "And then you start thinking of the inflationary spiral. The prices go up. Workers will want more wages. And then you start thinking of what happens if others retaliate [with their own duties.]"
Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari categorized a possible retaliation as a "tit-for-tat" trade war, which would keep inflation elevated over the long term.
"If inflation goes up, [Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell] is going to raise interest rates," Stiglitz said.
"You combine the higher interest rates and the retaliation from other countries, you're going to get a global slowdown. Then you have the worst of all possible worlds: inflation and stagnation, or slow growth."
Investors have dialed back rate cut expectations in preparation. Since the Fed's first rate cut on Sept. 18, markets now expect three fewer rate cuts between now and the end of next year, per the CME's FedWatch Tool.
But the US economy has remained resilient in the face of high interest rates. Retail sales once again topped estimates for the month of October, GDP remains strong, the unemployment rate continues to hover at around 4%, and inflation has moderated despite its bumpy path down to 2%.
Additionally, it remains unclear which policies will be a priority once Trump takes office or if he'll fully commit to the promises he's already made.
The only certainty is change.
In 2025, the GOP has not only secured the White House but also maintained control of the House of Representatives and flipped the Senate.
"The Republican sweep in the elections is likely to bring sweeping policy changes," Bank of America's US economics team wrote in a client note on Friday.
"There are plausible scenarios in which growth could run above 3%, or the economy could enter a recession," the team said. "Our base case is sanguine, but our conviction is low. As the policy agenda becomes clearer next year, we will be nimble in adjusting our forecasts as needed."
President-elect Donald Trump speaks at a meeting of the House GOP conference, Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) · ASSOCIATED PRESS
Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at alexandra.canal@yahoofinance.com.
Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance.
Terms and Privacy Policy Your Privacy Choices
