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Upgrade to Premium Chile Economy Returns to Growth in Small Respite for Boric
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Chile Economy Returns to Growth in Small Respite for Boric
Matthew Malinowski Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 7:13 AM 2 min read
(Bloomberg) — Chile’s economy returned to growth in the third quarter as demand firmed, providing limited relief to President Gabriel Boric’s administration as it prepares to cut its forecast for expansion this year.
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Gross domestic product grew 0.7% from the prior three months, more than the 0.6% median estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey. From a year ago, it grew 2.3%, the central bank reported on Monday.
Finance Minister Mario Marcel said this month the economy will fall short of the government’s 2.6% growth projection for 2024 after activity contracted in August and September. The central bank has cut interest rates by 6 percentage points in just over a year and the administration is pulling out all the stops to lure investment. Still, business confidence is flat, unemployment is high and Donald Trump’s election win in the US is raising prospects of more headwinds for China, Chile’s top trading partner.
Domestic demand rose 0.7% in the third quarter from the prior three-month period, while mining ticked up 0.1%, according to Chile’s central bank. Year-on-year growth was driven by sectors including personal services, mining, transportation and commerce, the bank said.
What Bloomberg Economics Says
“The results were broadly in line with monthly data released two weeks ago, which showed activity falling in August and September after advances in June and July. Monthly data signal activity has lost momentum and point to weaker growth in 4Q.”
— Felipe Hernandez, Latin America economist
— Click here for full report
Economists surveyed by the bank earlier this month expected another quarter-point interest rate cut in December. Still, inflation accelerated above forecasts in October, prompting some analysts to cast doubt on the case for more easing now.
Indeed, Chile policymakers warned that they couldn’t rule out persistent inflation due to domestic electricity hikes and global geopolitical tensions, according to the minutes to their October key rate decision.
Chile’s economy has gotten a boost as the price of its main export, copper, remains above $4 a pound. Still, that price has fallen in recent weeks due to weaker Chinese demand and the dollar’s surge after Trump’s election win.
–With assistance from Giovanna Serafim.
(Updates with economist quote in fifth paragraph)
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