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Upgrade to Premium Banxico Members Float Bigger Key Rate Cuts on Inflation Outlook
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Banxico Members Float Bigger Key Rate Cuts on Inflation Outlook
Maya Averbuch and Alex Vasquez Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 10:31 AM 3 min read
(Bloomberg) — Mexico’s central bank signaled willingness to consider bigger interest rate cuts without setting a specific time-frame for doing so, as closely-watched core inflation continues to slow.
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“Considering the current levels of core inflation and the expectation that it will continue declining, a larger rate adjustment could be considered at the next monetary policy meeting,” on Dec. 19, one member said in the minutes of the Nov. 14 policy decision published Thursday.
Other members of Banxico, as the central bank is known, were more general, saying the pace of the next rate reductions can be “calibrated” going forward, or the rate-cut cycle “should continue.”
Still, another member put the brakes on the discussion, questioning “the urgency to accelerate monetary easing” given that analysts do not expect significant improvements to inflation in coming months.
Mexico’s central bank earlier this month voted unanimously to cut its key interest rate for a third straight meeting as the key measure of underlying inflation retreats and signs mount of a prolonged slowdown in Latin America’s second-largest economy.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as energy and food, decelerated to a four-year low of 3.8% in October. While the headline reading has remained stubbornly elevated above the bank’s 3% goal, policymakers see it back to target by year-end 2025.
The continued slowdown in core inflation reflects the improvement in the overall consumer price outlook, one Banxico member said in the minutes. While most policymakers considered that the disinflation process will continue, all underlined that services costs still show persistence and the balance of risks for inflation remains biased to the upside.
In their post-decision statement, policymakers wrote that the inflationary environment would allow for “further reference rate adjustments” and will be alert to the “effects of the weakness in economic activity.”
Moderate Growth
In the minutes, the majority of the bank’s members said economic growth next year and in 2026 is expected to be moderate, and some said the balance of risks remains biased to the downside. All policymakers said investment in Mexico has lost momentum.
A contentious Mexican judicial reform and the election of Donald Trump as the next US president have rattled investors and whipped up volatility in the currency, giving Banxico more reason to move gradually. A greater depreciation of the peso, provoked in part by uncertainty in the US, represents an upside risk for inflation, according to the majority of Banxico members.
Official data published last week showed consumer prices rose 4.56% in the first two weeks of November from the same period a year earlier.
The majority of economists in the latest Citi survey believe that the next Banxico move will be limited to a 25 basis-point cut. They also predicted the economy will grow 1.5% in 2024 and 1% in 2025.
The Finance Ministry has a more optimistic estimate of 2% to 3% economic expansion next year, according to the 2025 budget. It also forecasts inflation will end this year at 4.3% and will slow to 3.5% by December 2025.
–With assistance from Rafael Gayol.
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