Treasuries Advance as Traders Mull Size of Fed Cut: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Treasuries rallied and the dollar fell after a mixed bag of US data this week kept investors guessing on the size of an expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.

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The policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield dropped five basis points and the dollar retreated 0.2%, falling for a third day. US futures pointed to modest gains after a rally that lifted the Nasdaq 100 more than 5% this week and the S&P 500 by 3.5%.

Investors remain divided on the magnitude of the Fed’s anticipated pivot to policy easing starting at next week’s meeting. The debate has continued after data Thursday showed that the US producer price index picked up slightly in August after the previous month’s numbers were revised lower. Meanwhile, an uptick in applications for unemployment benefits renewed concerns about a weakening labor market.

“If I were in the room, I would actually be pushing for a 50 basis-point rather than a 25 basis-point cut,” Evercore Chairman Emeritus Ralph Schlosstein said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “The balance of risks has shifted from a risk that inflation doesn’t come down as we hope, to a risk that unemployment grows up faster than we would hope.”

Traders are now betting on 33 basis points of cuts from the Fed on Sept. 18, versus 31 basis points on Thursday and 26 basis points on Wednesday.

His view echoed that of former New York Fed President William Dudley, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and adviser, and chair of the Bretton Woods Committee. “I think there’s a strong case for 50,” he said Friday in Singapore. “I know what I’d be pushing for.”

Thursday’s wholesale inflation data followed the more closely watched consumer price index, which showed underlying inflation accelerated in August. Yet policymakers have made it clear that they’re currently highly focused on softness in the labor market, which is more likely to drive policy discussions in the months ahead.

Among individual stocks, Oracle Corp. shares gained as much as 6.6% in premarket trading after the software company gave a long-term forecast that is seen as underlining the its growth drivers.

In Europe, Danish stocks hit a record for the first since November 2021, paced by gains in DSV A/S after the logistics firm agreed to buy a Deutsche Bahn AG unit for €14.3 billion ($15.9 billion).

Key events this week:

  • Eurozone industrial production, Friday

  • Japan industrial production, Friday

  • U. Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 7:46 a.m. New York time

  • Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed

  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%

  • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.4%

  • The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%

  • The euro was little changed at $1.1083

  • The British pound was little changed at $1.3121

  • The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 140.95 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $58,085.29

  • Ether rose 0.4% to $2,360.96

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.65%

  • Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.15%

  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 3.77%

  • The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 3.59%

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $69.78 a barrel

  • Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,564.98 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

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