(Bloomberg) — US equity futures kept to tight ranges as a watchful tone spread across global markets before the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.

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Traders are split over whether the US central bank will announce a cut of 25 or 50 basis points later Wednesday, with market-implied odds currently signaling a 55% chance of the bigger move.

Contracts on the S&P 500 were little changed, with the benchmark about 0.5% below its July record. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index retreated 0.4%. The dollar slipped close to its weakest levels since January, while Treasury yields ticked higher.

Investors are looking for the Fed to ease policy sufficiently to respond to recent signs of weakness in the economy, achieving a soft landing without stirring concerns that conditions are worse than markets appreciate.

“If they’re doing 25 basis points this time, the likelihood that they can get to a hundred basis points by year end is pretty slim,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St James Place Management. “So if you don’t get 50, then you’re going to get significant moves in market pricing.”

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The yen climbed as much as 0.8%, signaling expectations of a narrowing divergence in policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan, which decides on rates on Friday.

In corporate news, Alphabet Inc. gained in US premarket trading after its Google unit won a court fight over competition with the European Union. Aperol maker Davide Campari NV’s shares fell 6.7% as its chief executive officer resigned after just five months.

In the UK, money markets see the Bank of England delivering modestly less easing after services inflation rose to 5.6% in August from 5.2% in July, while the headline figure held at just above the 2% target. The pound strengthened and yields on UK government bonds rose after Wednesday’s data.

Economists largely anticipate the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce rates by a quarter point to a range of 5% to 5.25%, though a number expect a half-point move. Investors see greater scope for the larger adjustment.

Fresh quarterly projections in the form of the so-called “dot plot” released at the end of the central bank’s two-day meeting will offer further insight into the path ahead for borrowing costs and the economy. Chair Jerome Powell will also hold a press conference.

“I think they will go 25, but if they do go 50 — how they talk about this will be extremely important,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “That is why the dot plot coming along with the statement today is critical for rates expectations.”

“If the dot plots suddenly tell you maybe we are not getting 10 cuts — maybe we are getting only six or seven cuts, then of course that will also means that markets will look at that and say: ‘maybe we are overpricing this,’” Slok said.

In commodities, oil turned lower after a two-day gain as signs of higher US stockpiles countered concerns that Middle East tensions may escalate further.

Key events this week:

• Fed rate decision, Wednesday

• UK rate decision, Thursday

• US US Conf. Board leading index, initial jobless claims, US existing home sales, Thursday

• FedEx earnings, Thursday

• Japan rate decision, Friday

• Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 8:12 a.m. New York time

• Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed

• Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed

• The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.4%

• The MSCI World Index was little changed

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%

• The euro was little changed at $1.1125

• The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3208

• The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 141.97 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $59,777.66

• Ether fell 1.9% to $2,300.49

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.68%

• Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.18%

• Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 3.83%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8% to $70.63 a barrel

• Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,578.18 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from James Hirai, Winnie Hsu and Margaryta Kirakosian.

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