admin
News
- Today's news
- US
- Politics
- World
- Tech
- Reviews and deals
- Audio
- Computing
- Gaming
- Health
- Home
- Phones
- Science
- TVs
- Climate change
- Health
- Science
- 2024 election
- Originals
- The 360
- Newsletters
Life
- Health
- COVID-19
- Fall allergies
- Health news
- Mental health
- Relax
- Sexual health
- Studies
- The Unwind
- Parenting
- Family health
- So mini ways
- Style and beauty
- It Figures
- Unapologetically
- Horoscopes
- Shopping
- Buying guides
- Food
- Travel
- Autos
- Gift ideas
- Buying guides
Entertainment
- Celebrity
- TV
- Movies
- Music
- How to Watch
- Interviews
- Videos
Finance
- My Portfolio
- News
- Latest News
- Stock Market
- Originals
- The Morning Brief
- Premium News
- Economics
- Housing
- Earnings
- Tech
- Crypto
- Biden Economy
- Markets
- Stocks: Most Actives
- Stocks: Gainers
- Stocks: Losers
- Trending Tickers
- Futures
- World Indices
- US Treasury Bonds Rates
- Currencies
- Crypto
- Top ETFs
- Top Mutual Funds
- Options: Highest Open Interest
- Options: Highest Implied Volatility
- Sectors
- Basic Materials
- Communication Services
- Consumer Cyclical
- Consumer Defensive
- Energy
- Financial Services
- Healthcare
- Industrials
- Real Estate
- Technology
- Utilities
- Research
- Screeners
- Screeners Beta
- Watchlists
- Calendar
- Stock Comparison
- Advanced Chart
- Currency Converter
- Investment Ideas
- Research Reports
- Personal Finance
- Credit Cards
- Balance Transfer Cards
- Cash-back Cards
- Rewards Cards
- Travel Cards
- Credit Card Offers
- Banking
- CD Rates
- Best HYSA
- Best Free Checking
- Student Loans
- Personal Loans
- Insurance
- Car insurance
- Mortgages
- Mortgage Refinancing
- Mortgage Calculator
- Taxes
- Videos
- Latest News
- Editor's Picks
- Investing Insights
- Trending Stocks
- All Shows
- Morning Brief
- Opening Bid
- Wealth
- ETF Report
Sports
- Fantasy
- News
- Fantasy football
- Best Ball
- Pro Pick 'Em
- College Pick 'Em
- Fantasy baseball
- Fantasy hockey
- Fantasy basketball
- Download the app
- Daily fantasy
- NFL
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Stats
- Teams
- Players
- Drafts
- Injuries
- Odds
- Super Bowl
- GameChannel
- Videos
- MLB
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Stats
- Teams
- Players
- Odds
- Videos
- World Baseball Classic
- NBA
- News
- Draft
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Stats
- Teams
- Players
- Injuries
- Videos
- Odds
- Playoffs
- NHL
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Stats
- Teams
- Players
- Odds
- Playoffs
- Soccer
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Premier League
- MLS
- NWSL
- Liga MX
- CONCACAF League
- Champions League
- La Liga
- Serie A
- Bundesliga
- Ligue 1
- World Cup
- College football
- News
- Scores and schedules
- Standings
- Rankings
- Stats
- Teams
-
- MMA
- WNBA
- Sportsbook
- NCAAF
- Tennis
- Golf
- NASCAR
- NCAAB
- NCAAW
- Boxing
- USFL
- Cycling
- Motorsports
- Olympics
- Horse racing
- GameChannel
- Rivals
- Newsletters
- Podcasts
- Videos
- RSS
- Jobs
- Help
- World Cup
- More news
New on Yahoo
- Creators
- Games
- Tech
- Terms
- Privacy
- Your Privacy Choices
- Feedback
© 2024 All rights reserved. About our ads Advertising Careers Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance Search query Select edition
- USEnglish
- US y LATAMEspañol
- AustraliaEnglish
- CanadaEnglish
- CanadaFrançais
- DeutschlandDeutsch
- FranceFrançais
- 香港繁中
- MalaysiaEnglish
- New ZealandEnglish
- SingaporeEnglish
- 台灣繁中
- UKEnglish
Sign in
- My Portfolio
- News
- Latest News
- Stock Market
- Originals
- The Morning Brief
- Premium News
- Economics
- Housing
- Earnings
- Tech
- Crypto
- Biden Economy
- Markets
- Stocks: Most Actives
- Stocks: Gainers
- Stocks: Losers
- Trending Tickers
- Futures
- World Indices
- US Treasury Bonds Rates
- Currencies
- Crypto
- Top ETFs
- Top Mutual Funds
- Options: Highest Open Interest
- Options: Highest Implied Volatility
- Sectors
- Basic Materials
- Communication Services
- Consumer Cyclical
- Consumer Defensive
- Energy
- Financial Services
- Healthcare
- Industrials
- Real Estate
- Technology
- Utilities
- Research
- Screeners
- Screeners Beta
- Watchlists
- Calendar
- Stock Comparison
- Advanced Chart
- Currency Converter
- Investment Ideas
- Research Reports
- Personal Finance
- Credit Cards
- Balance Transfer Cards
- Cash-back Cards
- Rewards Cards
- Travel Cards
- Credit Card Offers
- Banking
- CD Rates
- Best HYSA
- Best Free Checking
- Student Loans
- Personal Loans
- Insurance
- Car insurance
- Mortgages
- Mortgage Refinancing
- Mortgage Calculator
- Taxes
- Videos
- Latest News
- Editor's Picks
- Investing Insights
- Trending Stocks
- All Shows
- Morning Brief
- Opening Bid
- Wealth
- ETF Report
Upgrade to Premium BREAKING NEWS US economy adds just 12,000 jobs in October as hurricanes, strikes weigh Bond Traders Scour US Jobs Data for Clues on Fed’s Rate Plan
1 / 3
Bond Traders Scour US Jobs Data for Clues on Fed’s Rate Plan
Michael Mackenzie and Edward Bolingbroke Fri, Nov 1, 2024, 6:26 AM 3 min read
(Bloomberg) — Investors who’ve been hedging against a deeper selloff in US Treasuries are preparing for volatility as Friday’s hurricane- and strike-tinged US employment report offers final clues ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision.
Most Read from Bloomberg
-
Is Denver’s Big Bet on E-Bikes Paying Off?
-
The Answer To Making Cities More Family-Friendly? Courtyards
-
Chicago Mayor Seeks Property Tax Hike, Breaking Campaign Vow
-
NY Transit Agency Takes Next Step on Brooklyn-Queens Rail Link
-
A South Korean City Plays Matchmaker to Tackle a Fertility Crisis
US bonds edged higher in early trading Friday after ending October with their worst monthly performance in two years. With the election and a Fed meeting days away, a measure of daily yield swings is at its highest in a year as traders position for further losses that could send 10-year yields as high as 4.5% over the next three weeks — compared with just under 4.3% currently.
That positioning makes evidence of a robust US labor market in government data released on Friday “hard for the market to ignore,” said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. While money managers can explain away weak data as a byproduct of strikes and storms, a strong jobs report would remove pressure on policymakers as they lower interest rates.
“I don’t think this Fed likes to surprise the markets too much,” he said. McIntyre expects a quarter-point cut at next week’s meeting, in line with most economists surveyed by Bloomberg, but anticipates they’ll send a hawkish message and “signal they are done cutting for a while.”
The selloff in Treasuries pushed yields higher by roughly 60 basis points over the past month, with the losses sparked in part by an unexpectedly strong reading of September jobs data. Since then, volatility has picked up in anticipation of the face-off between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on Nov. 5 and uncertainty about the Fed’s policy path.
The ICE BofA Move Index, a closely watched gauge of US bond-market volatility, closed at its highest this year this week, showing that traders are paying up to protect against increased turbulence. A standout flow on Thursday included a long volatility play for a premium of $10 million via options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Traders are pricing in about a 90% chance the Fed cuts rates by a quarter point next week — smaller than September’s half-point reduction. Swap rates anticipate a total of about 117 basis points of easing over the next 12 months, about 67 basis points less than at the beginning of October.
The unwinding of positions has been reflected in the cash market, where the latest survey from JPMorgan Chase & Co. shows clients reducing both long and short positions, as neutrals rise.
In the options market, traders have been positioning for a further selloff. Thursday’s flows included a $6.5 million premium bet on a 4.4% 10-year yield by Nov. 22, while the most-populated option put strike targets a rise to 4.5%.
While the October jobs report is unlikely to alter expectations for the November Fed decision, the data could still “move market expectations for the path of rate cuts during future meetings,” said Greg Wilensky, head of US fixed income at Janus Henderson Investors.
Traders will pay attention to the unemployment rate, which economists forecast will be steady at 4.1%. Strong data has the power to bolster bond-market expectations for a potential pause in interest-rate cuts early next year.
While the Fed will likely to lower rates next week, “shifting to a quarterly pace of 25 basis point cuts by skipping January remains the path of least resistance and is consistent with our expectations – as well as a relatively consensus take at the moment,” Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets said in a note.
(Updates market moves.)
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
-
Private Equity Hipsters Are Coming for Your Favorite Apps
-
How Elon Musk Came to Embrace the ‘Trump Trade’
-
Musk Takes a Victory Lap at Incendiary Trump Rally
-
What Everyone Gets Wrong About Luxury Handbags
-
Trump’s Immigration Policy Would Make Food Inflation Even Worse
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
Terms and Privacy Policy Your Privacy Choices
