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Upgrade to Premium Peloton stock surges as Bank of America upgrades on new CEO, ‘substantial earnings upside’ Laura Bratton Mon, Nov 4, 2024, 10:42 AM 3 min read
In This Article:
PTON BAC
Peloton (PTON) stock jumped nearly 10% Monday before paring gains following an upgrade from Bank of America (BAC).
Bank of America analyst Curtis Nagle upgraded the stock to a Buy rating and nearly tripled his price target from $3.75 to $9, citing the fitness company’s recent earnings beat, confidence in its new CEO and its potential for “substantial earnings upside.”
Shares were up 5.5% to $7.65 midday.
• USD (PTON)
Peloton’s jump on Monday extends a multi-week rally, with shares surging 70% over the past month as investors signal confidence in the fitness platform's turnaround plan, which includes a major marketing pivot.
Peloton’s fiscal first quarter earnings report last week for the period ended Sept. 30 surpassed Wall Street’s forecasts: Its adjusted earnings per share of $0 was better than the loss of $0.16 per share expected by analysts, and its third quarter revenue of $586 million was ahead of the $573 million forecasted, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. Peloton also announced its new CEO, Apple (AAPL) Fitness+ co-founder and Ford (F) executive Peter Stern, after a months-long search. Stern will take the helm in January 2025.
Following Peloton's quarterly earnings report, multiple firms from JPMorgan (JPM) to Bernstein, BMO Capital, Macquarie, Truist (TFC), and now Bank of America have raised their price targets on the stock. Analysts cited the platform’s focus on driving profitability and trimming capital expenditures. Bank of America's Nagle said its new CEO “ticks many boxes.”
He also said that Bank of America believes Peloton can exceed $300 million in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the fiscal year 2025, while the company itself set a more modest guidance range between $240 million and $290 million.
A Peloton bike is shown in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu, File) · ASSOCIATED PRESS
Peloton shares have plunged from highs around $150 in 2021. The company’s rapid rise — fueled by pandemic at-home workout trends — gave way to a steep, prolonged decline. Customers turned away from the fitness platform, with subscribers falling by about 400,000 between 2022 and 2024. And Peloton’s annual earnings in 2022 and 2023 fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
Stern, who currently serves as president of Ford Integrated Services, “will hopefully provide much-needed direction for the Company’s subscription growth,” said Bernstein analyst Aneesha Sherman, who maintains her Market-Perform rating on the stock.
Overall, analysts tracked by Bloomberg see shares hovering around $8 over the next year.
"While Peloton is ahead of plan on right-sizing the cost base and improving hardware unit economics, growth remains elusive," she wrote in a note Nov. 1.
“[T]he incoming CEO, inheriting a stable and FCF-positive [free cash flow positive] business with a much leaner cost structure, will now need to lay out a strategy for a return to sustainable LT [long term] growth – this is what will drive the next leg up in the stock, and what we’re waiting for to get more constructive.”
Bank of America's Nagle said: "[U]nder a new CEO, we see a large opportunity for more OPEX [operating expenditure] cuts, higher hardware margins and subscription price increases."
Truist analyst Youssef Squali added: "With several initiatives underway, mgt is gradually repositioning PTON for profitable growth but visibility into the pace of this growth, LT [long term] margin and the ultimate TAM [total addressable market, or total revenue opportunity] size remains low."
Laura Bratton is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @LauraBratton5.
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