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Upgrade to Premium Chile Inflation Tops All Forecasts in Alert to Central Bank Matthew Malinowski Fri, Nov 8, 2024, 5:50 AM 2 min read
(Bloomberg) — Chile’s consumer prices rose more than expected in October as electricity costs jumped by double digits, damping the outlook for interest rate cuts even as growth stalls.
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Prices rose 1% in the month, above all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of analysts that had a 0.6% median estimate, and the fastest pace since March of last year. Annual inflation sped up to 4.7%, the national statistics institute reported on Friday.
Chile central bankers warned this week that they cannot rule out more persistent inflation as energy bills get pricier and global economic uncertainty intensifies. That’s in a context where cost-of-living increases are already well above the 3% target. While a survey published Thursday showed traders expecting policymakers to keep their pace of quarter-point rate cuts into 2025, today’s report stands to contradict that view.
The October inflation reading was “surprising and high,” Jorge Selaive, chief economist at Scotiabank Chile, wrote on X, adding that the data “complicates an interest rate cut in December.”
Energy costs soared 3.7% on the month, while housing and utilities jumped 3.1% and food and non-alcoholic beverages increased 2.2%, according to the national statistics institute.
Chile’s government said electricity tariffs would jump about 23% in October as part of a series of staggered increases approved by lawmakers earlier this year. Energy bills, which had been frozen since a period of social unrest starting in late 2019, had previously increased by about 12% in July.
Chile’s central bank lowered borrowing costs 5.25% last month, extending total rate reductions since mid-2023 to 6 percentage points.
In the minutes to that rate decision, policymakers wrote they have difficulty in anticipating the economic effects of global conflicts in regions such as the Middle East. Chile’s peso swung between gains and loses as markets reacted to Donald Trump’s presidential election win in the US this week.
Chile’s economic activity posted its biggest monthly plunge since July 2022 in September, prompting the government to scrap its growth forecast for this year and stoking bets on more interest rate cuts.
(Adds economist comment in fourth paragraph)
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