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Upgrade to Premium Oil Rises as Geopolitical Tensions Outweigh Weak Market Signals
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Oil Rises as Geopolitical Tensions Outweigh Weak Market Signals
Mia Gindis and Maggie Eastland Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 2:16 PM 2 min read
In This Article:
CM
(Bloomberg) — Oil surged as simmering geopolitical tensions and the weakening dollar overshadowed bearish signals coming from internal market metrics.
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West Texas Intermediate rose 3.2% to settle above $69 a barrel after the US gave Ukraine the green light to use long-range missiles inside of Russia, amping up tensions between the warring nations. Crude also tracked equity markets higher, and a weaker dollar made raw materials priced in the currency more attractive. Brent also rose, settling above $73 a barrel.
Meanwhile, the two nearest futures for West Texas Intermediate crude flipped into a bearish contango structure — where front-month contracts are cheaper than those further along — for the first time since February. The so-called prompt spread’s switch into a discount may be seen as a signal that supplies are outstripping near-term demand.
But moves by traders who are bullish on crude may also have contributed to the prompt spread’s slip into contango. Those investors have been maintaining their bets on rising prices by selling December contracts, which are set to expire on Wednesday, and purchasing later-dated futures.
“It is rare for spot prices to be up almost 3% at the same time that the curve is under pressure and threatening to switch to contango,” said Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. “However, it is more likely to happen when speculators scramble to spread out of their position ahead of expiration, selling at the front of the curve and buying further out.”
Speculation that an emboldened Ukraine may put Russian energy assets at risk and increase the likelihood of direct involvement from the US and North Korea is reducing the urgency to sell as well, said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group.
Also supporting prices on Monday were reports the Chevron-led Tengiz venture in Kazakhstan cut daily oil production by as much as 30% this month amid maintenance. A dearth of expected inventory builds in recent US government data and the potential for stricter sanctions on Iran also added to tailwinds.
Crude has swung between gains and losses in recent weeks, with hostilities in the Middle East at times raising fears of disruptions to supply. At the same time, a stronger greenback has pressured prices, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rallying to the highest in more than a year last week.
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